markets

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=22.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=8.18%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?': YES=72.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=16.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?': YES=28.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2035?': YES=54.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?': YES=15.21%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=35.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=53.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=64.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI releases a creative writing model by June 1st 2026?': YES=7.21%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI announces an interactive world model by June 1st 2026?': YES=11.44%

Manifold consensus on 'First OpenAI + io hardware product wearable?': YES=23.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Will The New York Times win its copyright infringement suit against OpenAI and Microsoft?': YES=57.92%

Manifold consensus on '🧑‍⚖️ Will The New York Times Win A Lawsuit Against OpenAI & Microsoft?': YES=54.64%

Manifold consensus on 'On June 1, will OpenAI be valued higher than Anthropic?': YES=39.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=59.94%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?': YES=27.99%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=33.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO by 2040?': YES=88.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?': YES=76.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Another OpenAI whistleblower dies of unnatural causes before 2027': YES=21.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?': YES=10.63%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?': YES=12.35%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Musk–OpenAI lawsuit go to trial?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?': YES=51.26%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=28.00%