markets

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=9.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=5.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=17.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=11.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?': YES=18.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=64.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=36.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=41.50%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=59.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?': YES=3.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?': YES=6.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?': YES=7.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?': YES=78.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'GTA VI released before June 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?': YES=49.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?': YES=50.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Trump out as President before GTA VI?': YES=51.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?': YES=48.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?': YES=53.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a new, full-length Stargate series premiere in 2023?': YES=2.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get new Stargate before 2025?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will President Trump speak negatively about Sam Altman by the end of February 2025?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"?': YES=4.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Will "Quotes from the Stargate press conference" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?': YES=4.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Stargate Argentina built before 2028?': YES=36.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Stargate be the US version of the Chinese Social Credit System (社会信用体系) by the end of 2028?': YES=7.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Stargate Project to add a new major technology partner by EOY?': YES=60.60%

Manifold consensus on 'Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?': YES=28.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a new live-action Stargate movie/TV-series start filming before Stargate invests $500B in AI?': YES=64.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Chinese government announce a equivalent AI project to Stargate in 2025': YES=12.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Stargate project work?': YES=56.66%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?': YES=10.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA maintain a >=75% of the Data center market share for at least 8 quarters by the end of 2026?': YES=78.85%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Lumen Orbit have at least one functioning megawatt-scale data center in space by the end of 2028?': YES=6.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any data center in the United States be powered by a nuclear reactor by Nov 2028?': YES=32.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA maintain a >=75% of the Data center market share for at least 4 quarters by the end of 2025?': YES=90.73%