markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?': YES=45.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=35.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=28.21%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=96.42%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=34.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=14.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=7.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.93%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.60%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=72.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=33.02%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?': YES=98.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=28.15%

Polymarket top market 'Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1?': YES=99.80%

Polymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?': YES=47.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?': YES=5.60%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka': YES=80.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=6.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election': YES=85.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=98.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 1?': YES=0.10%