markets

Manifold consensus on 'China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?': YES=53.68%

Manifold consensus on 'US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026': YES=52.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI demonstrate a working thermo-chip by 2050?': YES=80.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?': YES=25.45%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=71.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Tesla announces formal Intel partnership for AI chip fab by June 30, 2026': YES=96.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Groq chip inspire Nvidia/AMD to produce radically new AI chips before 2026?': YES=2.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?': YES=77.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?': YES=45.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=35.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=28.21%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=96.42%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=34.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=14.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=28.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=7.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.93%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.60%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=72.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.50%

Polymarket top market 'Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?': YES=8.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?': YES=74.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers': YES=31.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?': YES=60.00%