markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=7.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.93%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.60%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=72.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.50%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?': YES=2.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?': YES=62.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Ethereum Up or Down on June 3?': YES=20.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=74.00%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5)': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by June 15?': YES=12.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=26.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3?': YES=19.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?': YES=32.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?': YES=3.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?': YES=3.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=15.90%