markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=13.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=46.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=35.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=14.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Donald Trump be the US president when we get AGI?': YES=24.25%

Manifold consensus on 'If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?': YES=63.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a "Search" feature that replaces ChatGPT's default interface before July 1, 2026?': YES=15.35%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Announces that its CEO/Leader will have AI components (Software + human or alone) by mid 2026': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1July 2026 (23:59 UTC)?': YES=16.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk and OpenAI announce a settlement in their federal lawsuit before July 1, 2026?': YES=1.38%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026': YES=17.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?': YES=36.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will stop investing in MCP in 2026': YES=48.34%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=82.02%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=68.87%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?': YES=8.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic’s valuation exceed that of OpenAI by at least 50% on June 1, 2027?': YES=33.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=70.15%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple mention OpenAI or ChatGPT in its WWDC 2026 keynote?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?': YES=98.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2026?': YES=96.66%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=33.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=62.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=90.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?': YES=19.50%