markets

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=52.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=73.44%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alberta join the US?': YES=4.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andres Martin': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?': YES=96.40%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?': YES=39.10%

Polymarket top market 'Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5': YES=99.00%

Polymarket top market 'Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?': YES=2.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=69.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=98.30%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=5.20%

Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by June 30?': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx': YES=42.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?': YES=3.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?': YES=29.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?': YES=66.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.90%

Polymarket top market 'Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins': YES=63.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kamaru Usman be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challengers League Playoffs': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04?': YES=0.10%