markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-28 · run status: success with data
- 2026-06-06Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%
NVDAmarket:manifold - 2026-06-06Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.50%
NVDAmarket:manifold Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
Polymarket top market 'Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'US strike on Cuba by December 31?': YES=44.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
Polymarket top market 'SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=53.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=54.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?': YES=3.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6?': YES=92.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?': YES=77.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?': YES=40.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will Alberta join the US?
Polymarket top market 'Will Alberta join the US?': YES=4.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=37.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?': YES=62.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by June 30?': YES=19.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=56.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6?': YES=80.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?': YES=32.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket