markets

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=19.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=8.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=23.20%

Polymarket top market 'South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance': YES=26.00%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28?': YES=99.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu': YES=41.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Canada (-3.5)': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?': YES=3.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=82.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will United States win on 2026-07-01?': YES=72.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Canada (-1.5)': YES=32.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?': YES=6.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will no listed leader be out before 2027?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs': YES=62.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Didier Fuentes win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-06-28?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?': YES=85.00%

Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by June 30?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?': YES=55.90%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?': YES=95.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elly De La Cruz win the 2026 National League MVP Award?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=35.00%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner': YES=23.00%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.10%