markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
- 2026-06-29Trump out as President by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by June 30?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-29Spread: France (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: France (-1.5)': YES=57.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?': YES=32.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-29No one announced as next James Bond?
Polymarket top market 'No one announced as next James Bond?': YES=97.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?': YES=15.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In': YES=87.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=17.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5': YES=7.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-29Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?
Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=38.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=82.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-29Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-29Will France win on 2026-06-30?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win on 2026-06-30?': YES=78.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Fernando Tatis Jr. lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-29Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?
Polymarket top market 'Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Logan Webb strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-29Spread: Germany (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Germany (-1.5)': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-29Iran leadership change by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by June 30?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-29Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-29Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?
Polymarket top market 'Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?': YES=74.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Gunnar Henderson lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-29Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-29New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Polymarket top market 'New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-29Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-29Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?
Polymarket top market 'Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?': YES=43.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=10.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-29Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-29Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-29Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket