markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
Manifold consensus on 'Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?': YES=48.00%
OPENAImarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=84.80%
OPENAImarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will the next OpenAI model be closer to Fable-class than to Opus-class?': YES=52.95%
OPENAImarket:manifold- 2026-07-01Will Anthropic IPO before OpenAI?
Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic IPO before OpenAI?': YES=70.28%
ANTHROPICmarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=19.41%
OPENAImarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=25.32%
OPENAImarket:manifold- 2026-07-01OpenAI Announces that its CEO/Leader will have AI components (Software + human or alone) by mid 2026
Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Announces that its CEO/Leader will have AI components (Software + human or alone) by mid 2026': YES=9.38%
OPENAImarket:manifold - 2026-07-01OpenAI IPO before 2027?
Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=24.84%
OPENAImarket:manifold - 2026-07-01Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1July 2026 (23:59 UTC)?
Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1July 2026 (23:59 UTC)?': YES=1.00%
OPENAImarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by August 31, 2026?': YES=95.14%
OPENAImarket:manifold- 2026-07-01Will Elon Musk and OpenAI announce a settlement in their federal lawsuit before July 1, 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk and OpenAI announce a settlement in their federal lawsuit before July 1, 2026?': YES=1.29%
OPENAImarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a Mythos-class model before Fable is reenabled?': YES=1.00%
OPENAImarket:manifold- 2026-07-01If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?': YES=96.93%
OPENAImarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%
SMICmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%
TSMmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%
TSMmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%
TSMmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%
SMICmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%
SMICmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%
TSMmarket:manifold- 2026-07-01Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?
Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%
NVDAmarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=30.04%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%
TSMmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%
INTCmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%
INTCmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%
TSMmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%
TSMmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%
TSMmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%
TSMmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%
TSMmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%
TSMmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%
TSMmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=62.81%
TSMmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=94.72%
TSMmarket:manifold- 2026-07-01Will AI labs need to switch to monitoring chips for a moratorium on AI development to work?
Manifold consensus on 'Will AI labs need to switch to monitoring chips for a moratorium on AI development to work?': YES=54.00%
market:manifold - 2026-07-01Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?
Manifold consensus on 'Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?': YES=19.50%
market:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will the Sohu AI chip ship to customers within a year?': YES=2.61%
ETCHEDmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?': YES=3.49%
TSMmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will the purchase of 3k NVIDIA H100 chips through Saudi's KAUST lead to a functional form of generative AI by June 2024?': YES=14.86%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025?': YES=8.02%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?': YES=53.68%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026': YES=52.72%
SCALEAImarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI demonstrate a working thermo-chip by 2050?': YES=80.39%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?': YES=25.45%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?': YES=93.00%
OPENAImarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=71.67%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Tesla announces formal Intel partnership for AI chip fab by June 30, 2026': YES=96.54%
INTCmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will the Groq chip inspire Nvidia/AMD to produce radically new AI chips before 2026?': YES=2.42%
AMDmarket:manifold