markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=38.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Half-Life 3 before AGI?': YES=74.05%

Manifold consensus on 'What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?': YES=17.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=53.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=44.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?': YES=16.25%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=51.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on AGI by 2050?': YES=41.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=14.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Donald Trump be the US president when we get AGI?': YES=28.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=29.85%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?': YES=90.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI solve all Erdös problems by 2030?': YES=5.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by August 31, 2026?': YES=92.52%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2028?': YES=83.38%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?': YES=69.72%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=84.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?': YES=23.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the next OpenAI model be closer to Fable-class than to Opus-class?': YES=48.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?': YES=4.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk and OpenAI announce a settlement in their federal lawsuit before July 1, 2026?': YES=1.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI declare bankruptcy or be Acquired before the end of 2027?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1July 2026 (23:59 UTC)?': YES=4.85%

Manifold consensus on 'If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?': YES=65.73%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=24.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the @anthropic-ai/sdk npm package have more weekly downloads than the openai npm package during any 7-day period be': YES=96.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Announces that its CEO/Leader will have AI components (Software + human or alone) by mid 2026': YES=9.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a Mythos-class model before Fable is reenabled?': YES=10.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=30.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%