markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=23.20%
NVDAmarket:manifold- 2026-06-30Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=19.84%
NVDAmarket:manifold - 2026-06-30Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.05%
NVDAmarket:manifold Polymarket top market 'Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-30Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty
Polymarket top market 'Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty': YES=32.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-30Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Sweden?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Sweden?': YES=5.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-30Spread: Sweden (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Sweden (-1.5)': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=4.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-30Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?': YES=34.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Mariano Navone vs Flavio Cobolli': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-30Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Sweden?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Sweden?': YES=5.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=80.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-30Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Ecuador?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Ecuador?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-30Spread: France (-3.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: France (-3.5)': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-30Spread: England (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: England (-1.5)': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-30Will United States win on 2026-07-01?
Polymarket top market 'Will United States win on 2026-07-01?': YES=72.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-30Spread: Mexico (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Mexico (-1.5)': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-30Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals
Polymarket top market 'Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals': YES=58.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?': YES=28.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-30France vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Terence Atmane': YES=83.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-30Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?
Polymarket top market 'Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-30Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Sweden?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Sweden?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-30France leading at halftime?
Polymarket top market 'France leading at halftime?': YES=49.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-30France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?': YES=17.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-30Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Sweden?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Sweden?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-30France vs. Sweden: France O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Sweden: France O/U 2.5': YES=42.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Dayana Yastremska be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-30England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5': YES=49.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-30Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance': YES=64.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Carlos Rodón strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-30Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Sweden?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Sweden?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier': YES=72.00%
market:polymarket