markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%
market:manifold- 2026-07-04Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%
NVDAmarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 2 Ghana?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 2 Ghana?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=39.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Will United States win on 2026-07-06?
Polymarket top market 'Will United States win on 2026-07-06?': YES=34.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Colombia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'Colombia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Playoffs': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Ghana?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Ghana?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance': YES=29.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Spread: Ghana (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Ghana (-1.5)': YES=1.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Colombia leading at halftime?
Polymarket top market 'Colombia leading at halftime?': YES=40.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Polymarket top market 'Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees': YES=24.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
Polymarket top market 'Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros': YES=63.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Ghana?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Ghana?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 Ghana?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 Ghana?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners': YES=47.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Ghana?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Ghana?': YES=4.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Ghana?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Ghana?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?
Polymarket top market 'Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?': YES=38.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Ghana?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Ghana?': YES=3.80%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Spread: France (-2.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: France (-2.5)': YES=36.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?
Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs': YES=44.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance': YES=47.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5
Polymarket top market 'Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5': YES=90.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Colombia vs. Ghana: Colombia O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'Colombia vs. Ghana: Colombia O/U 1.5': YES=53.00%
market:polymarket