markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?': YES=72.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=72.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 6?': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=72.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Spain?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Spain?': YES=3.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 6?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.80%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Spain?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Portugal (-2.5)': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 6?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=32.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=59.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?': YES=29.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=17.80%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=10.40%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Belgium?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?': YES=5.40%

Polymarket top market 'China vs. Chinese Taipei': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Spain?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on July 6?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?': YES=58.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 6?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Spain?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=16.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=90.00%