markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=72.90%
NVDAmarket:manifold- 2026-07-06Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-06Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Spain?': YES=3.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=49.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET': YES=99.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-06Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?
Polymarket top market 'Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-06Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=3.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-06Spread: Portugal (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Portugal (-1.5)': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-06Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5
Polymarket top market 'Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 6?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-06GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Belgium?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on July 6?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?': YES=14.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=32.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=71.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=67.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 6?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-06China vs. Chinese Taipei
Polymarket top market 'China vs. Chinese Taipei': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=59.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-06Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Spain?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance': YES=41.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Wimbledon WTA: Marie Bouzkova vs Elise Mertens': YES=46.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=17.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-06Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Spain?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli': YES=79.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-06Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?
Polymarket top market 'Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?': YES=5.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Belgium?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?': YES=2.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 6?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-06Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?': YES=54.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=89.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=15.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-06Spread: United States (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: United States (-1.5)': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=6.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-06France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance': YES=79.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-06Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance': YES=86.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-06Will France win on 2026-07-09?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win on 2026-07-09?': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket