markets

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=56.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=22.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will SpaceX / xAI have a functioning space-based datacentre with 10K or more H100-class (or better) GPU's by 2032?': YES=25.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=14.34%

Manifold consensus on '4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?': YES=30.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?': YES=87.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=38.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Half-Life 3 before AGI?': YES=74.05%

Manifold consensus on 'What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?': YES=17.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=53.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=44.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before July 1st 2026?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Does Elon Musk claim Grok 5 is an AGI?': YES=17.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk?': YES=24.89%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=15.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=6.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=6.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?': YES=20.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of April Fools 2027?': YES=71.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?': YES=91.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic IPO before OpenAI?': YES=75.18%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?': YES=90.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?': YES=20.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be valued more than a trillion dollar at anytime before 2034?': YES=92.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI win the 2026 AtCoder WTF Heuristic competition?': YES=98.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will openAI cancel o5 model?': YES=98.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go public in 2026?': YES=11.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?': YES=11.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=31.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI raise $100b': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI declare bankruptcy or be Acquired before the end of 2027?': YES=8.88%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=90.08%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%