markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will SpaceX / xAI have a functioning space-based datacentre with 10K or more H100-class (or better) GPU's by 2032?': YES=25.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=14.34%

Manifold consensus on '4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?': YES=30.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?': YES=87.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=38.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Half-Life 3 before AGI?': YES=74.05%

Manifold consensus on 'What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?': YES=17.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=53.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=44.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before July 1st 2026?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?': YES=28.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?': YES=18.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=31.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=16.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=6.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=13.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026?': YES=8.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the next OpenAI model be closer to Fable-class than to Opus-class?': YES=75.79%

Manifold consensus on 'If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?': YES=92.83%

Manifold consensus on 'At the end of 2027 will both OpenAI and Anthropic be public companies?': YES=76.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic IPO before OpenAI?': YES=75.18%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?': YES=90.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?': YES=20.24%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=87.69%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be valued more than a trillion dollar at anytime before 2034?': YES=92.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by September 30, 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=47.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by August 31, 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI declare bankruptcy or be Acquired before the end of 2027?': YES=8.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI win the 2026 AtCoder WTF Heuristic competition?': YES=98.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=30.04%