markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=60.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs Team Orange Gaming (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season': YES=1.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Istanbul 2: Kyoka Okamura vs Lanlana Tararudee': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=43.50%

Polymarket top market 'Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=5.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group B': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Spain?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=88.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group D': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.90%

Polymarket top market 'SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 13?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=23.00%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: O/U 0.5': YES=93.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Spain?': YES=9.00%