markets

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=56.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=22.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on '4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=6.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?': YES=30.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Does Elon Musk claim Grok 5 is an AGI?': YES=13.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Half-Life 3 before AGI?': YES=74.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=53.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=64.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2038?': YES=69.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=15.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=6.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=39.85%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=13.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?': YES=61.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?': YES=40.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?': YES=54.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO by 2040?': YES=92.66%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month?': YES=7.60%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?': YES=20.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of April Fools 2027?': YES=65.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go public in 2026?': YES=16.94%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic’s valuation exceed that of OpenAI by at least 50% on June 1, 2027?': YES=38.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI fold by EOY 2026?': YES=2.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher valuation than OpenAI on April 18, 2029?': YES=54.15%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=90.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be listed on Nasdaq by the end of 2026?': YES=19.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple still be partnered with OpenAI in 2028?': YES=33.65%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=17.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=5.84%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=17.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?': YES=7.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI name another model Codex by the end of this year?': YES=22.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?': YES=98.98%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%