markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: O/U 4.5': YES=14.25%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=45.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by July 31?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=4.10%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=6.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mookie Betts win the 2026 National League MVP Award?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?': YES=15.10%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance': YES=55.25%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5': YES=79.00%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5': YES=40.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=29.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Spain?': YES=4.50%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: eSuba vs Misa Esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Kitzbuehel: Laura Pigossi vs Laura Samson': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: France (-2.5)': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=11.00%