markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?': YES=33.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?': YES=56.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=7.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=57.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=32.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Argentina?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Argentina?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Argentina?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Labaron Philon Jr. win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Lincoln: Evan Zhu vs Yunchaokete Bu
Polymarket top market 'Lincoln: Evan Zhu vs Yunchaokete Bu': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Argentina?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?': YES=15.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15MLB All-Star Game
Polymarket top market 'MLB All-Star Game': YES=77.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Washington Mystics vs. Toronto Tempo
Polymarket top market 'Washington Mystics vs. Toronto Tempo': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Argentina?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Will the Philadelphia Phillies have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Philadelphia Phillies have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=31.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Will England win on 2026-07-15?
Polymarket top market 'Will England win on 2026-07-15?': YES=35.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?': YES=31.75%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5': YES=39.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Iasi Open: Ilinca Amariei vs Elsa Jacquemot': YES=3.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score': YES=52.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=7.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tarris Reed Jr. win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance': YES=53.75%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ebuka Okorie win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=91.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=22.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=58.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket