markets

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2028, will a GPU the same or smaller die size as b100 achieve 2x or better max throughput on GPT-oss-120b?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?': YES=44.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=56.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=22.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=6.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?': YES=30.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Does Elon Musk claim Grok 5 is an AGI?': YES=13.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Half-Life 3 before AGI?': YES=74.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=49.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=53.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=64.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'An AGI will surpass Nigel Richards in traditional Scrabble by the end of 2025': YES=27.35%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=13.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=6.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2040?': YES=73.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Noam Chomsky be alive to witness the development of AGI?': YES=5.15%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a competitor to GitHub in 2026?': YES=16.47%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=17.24%

Manifold consensus on 'OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027': YES=26.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?': YES=40.07%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=90.26%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2028?': YES=85.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go public in 2026?': YES=8.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic IPO before OpenAI?': YES=84.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will stop investing in MCP in 2026': YES=44.10%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2029?': YES=91.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=3.49%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=12.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?': YES=17.59%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%