markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA market cap exceed 10 trillion USD at any point in time before January 1, 2030?': YES=74.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=72.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=78.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=51.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=21.55%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. England: O/U 6.5': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. England: O/U 3.5': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=39.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. England: O/U 2.5': YES=67.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?': YES=4.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=58.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: K27 vs Wildcard (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Detroit Tigers have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=5.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. England: Team to Win': YES=65.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?': YES=42.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A': YES=43.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'ODI Series England vs India: England vs India': YES=41.00%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs GAM Esports (+1.5)': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=31.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=78.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 16?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina?': YES=3.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 16?': YES=99.30%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will England win on 2026-07-18?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: All Gamers vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Omega': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 16?': YES=2.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=1.20%