markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=60.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA market cap exceed 10 trillion USD at any point in time before January 1, 2030?': YES=74.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=72.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=78.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President before 2027?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?': YES=3.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?': YES=8.30%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 The Open Championship?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?': YES=4.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=17.30%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?': YES=93.30%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=21.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=12.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?': YES=88.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=5.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=65.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=3.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 13-19?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=12.00%