markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=50.21%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. England: O/U 4.5': YES=26.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?': YES=3.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Argentina?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'Rome: Nuria Brancaccio vs Julia Riera': YES=21.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=95.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Argentina?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs BIG (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season': YES=97.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?': YES=97.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=34.10%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega': YES=74.00%

Polymarket top market 'San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 1 England?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=8.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=40.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?': YES=3.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=33.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Boston Red Sox hit the most home runs in the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?': YES=10.00%