markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 17?': YES=99.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=3.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Spread: Spain (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Spain (-1.5)': YES=21.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Nova Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 17?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Trump out as President by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by July 31?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?': YES=13.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17France vs. England: O/U 6.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. England: O/U 6.5': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?': YES=28.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=78.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17France vs. England: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. England: O/U 2.5': YES=68.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=40.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Exact Score: France 2 - 3 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 3 England?': YES=3.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Exact Score: France 3 - 2 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 2 England?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Will England win on 2026-07-18?
Polymarket top market 'Will England win on 2026-07-18?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Will France vs. England end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will France vs. England end in a draw?': YES=26.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=59.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=29.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Exact Score: France 3 - 3 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 3 England?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Exact Score: France 3 - 1 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 1 England?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Exact Score: France 0 - 0 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 0 - 0 England?': YES=3.70%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?': YES=43.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5': YES=43.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?
Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=95.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=32.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?
Polymarket top market 'World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17France vs. England: O/U 3.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. England: O/U 3.5': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Cal Raleigh win the 2026 American League MVP Award?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Valentin Vacherot': YES=81.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs': YES=66.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17France vs. England: Team to Win
Polymarket top market 'France vs. England: Team to Win': YES=65.00%
market:polymarket