markets

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.65%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=24.11%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?': YES=25.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=6.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?': YES=3.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 21?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=5.90%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: 3v Team vs NCG Esports (BO3) - LRN Regular season': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs Imperial - Map 1 Winner': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rafael Devers lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=6.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Sabah FK win on 2026-07-21?': YES=58.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=4.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%