markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals': YES=46.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=26.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-20Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?': YES=3.70%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-20San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves
Polymarket top market 'San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves': YES=47.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=36.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=4.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Trump out as President by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by July 31?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-20Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #5 Play-In': YES=9.00%
CIRCLEmarket:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?': YES=72.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-20Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=10.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 24?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=23.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=76.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Palermo: Federica Urgesi vs Elizara Yaneva': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees
Polymarket top market 'Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=11.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 20?
Polymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 20?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket