markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.65%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=47.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 24?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=33.00%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=8.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=26.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23?': YES=97.20%

Polymarket top market 'Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=33.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: NIP vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=7.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=4.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=42.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)': YES=72.00%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=24.60%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=3.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Timofey Skatov': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=71.00%