markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?': YES=99.60%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?': YES=7.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-24Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group B
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group B': YES=36.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Team Vitality vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=31.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Chris Moneymaker cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Tampere: Henri Squire vs Otto Virtanen
Polymarket top market 'Tampere: Henri Squire vs Otto Virtanen': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?': YES=80.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5)': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Iran full airspace closure by July 24?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 24?': YES=3.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=13.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=22.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Livesport Prague Open: Dominika Salkova vs Barbora Krejcikova': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha': YES=39.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=52.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23?': YES=99.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?
Polymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?': YES=84.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies': YES=45.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?': YES=35.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?': YES=64.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=0.30%
GOOGLmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Zug: Max Hans Rehberg vs Anton Matusevich': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner': YES=21.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group A
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group A': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?': YES=90.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=3.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 24?': YES=3.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=73.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Palermo: Francesca Jones vs Jennifer Ruggeri': YES=98.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=20.80%
market:polymarket