markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=54.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2036?': YES=62.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2035?': YES=57.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=43.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2038?': YES=68.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2031?': YES=40.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=13.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=45.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2043?': YES=77.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2042?': YES=75.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=28.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2041?': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=16.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2047?': YES=82.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=6.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?': YES=18.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2039?': YES=70.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2037?': YES=66.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2034?': YES=51.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2048?': YES=83.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=37.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?': YES=67.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=57.89%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVDA own >1% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?': YES=76.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?': YES=96.33%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=6.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=3.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?': YES=22.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?': YES=98.79%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=16.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI ship a hardware device in 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI declare bankruptcy or be Acquired before the end of 2027?': YES=7.12%

Manifold consensus on '7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.': YES=8.85%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a criminal investigation into OpenAI over the Hugging Face breach be publicly confirmed before 2028?': YES=38.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%