markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=12.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'T20 Series Zimbabwe vs India: Zimbabwe vs India': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Team Vitality vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season': YES=19.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5': YES=6.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=3.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: Team Secret vs T1 - Map 2 Winner': YES=5.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?': YES=47.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=8.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=53.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-07-25?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?': YES=42.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 25?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'The Hundred, Women: Sunrisers Leeds vs Southern Brave': YES=4.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=77.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=41.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?': YES=95.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?': YES=58.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier': YES=23.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 25?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-25Bitcoin Up or Down on July 25?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 25?': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'ODI Series Sri Lanka vs Pakistan, Women: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=77.00%
NVDAmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier': YES=40.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-25Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?': YES=4.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-25Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=22.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=30.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'T20 Lanka Premier League: Galle Gallants vs Kandy Royals': YES=41.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Hamburg European Open: Elina Avanesyan vs Anna Bondar': YES=53.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-25Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?': YES=36.00%
market:polymarket