markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-28 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?': YES=96.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Valter Walker (Heavyweight, Prelims)': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=99.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC Fight Night: Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki (Lightweight, Main Card)': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=77.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals': YES=42.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-25Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Polymarket top market 'Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox': YES=46.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-25Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=48.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Estoril Open: Alexander Blockx vs Luciano Darderi': YES=15.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-25Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?
Polymarket top market 'Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?': YES=99.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=8.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=4.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket