markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
- 2026-07-27Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=22.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shang': YES=44.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5': YES=55.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-27Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Polymarket top market 'Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins': YES=65.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-27Rosenborg BK vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 3.5
Polymarket top market 'Rosenborg BK vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 3.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals': YES=48.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?': YES=94.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-27The Hundred: Southern Brave vs MI London
Polymarket top market 'The Hundred: Southern Brave vs MI London': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rosenborg BK vs. Fredrikstad FK end in a draw?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?': YES=53.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-27Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2026-07-27?
Polymarket top market 'Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2026-07-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-27Rosenborg BK vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Rosenborg BK vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 2.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-27Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-07-27?
Polymarket top market 'Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-07-27?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-27S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 27?
Polymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 27?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'The Memphis Classic: Katie Volynets vs Viktorija Golubic': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-27Rosenborg BK vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 0.5
Polymarket top market 'Rosenborg BK vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 0.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-27Rosenborg BK vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'Rosenborg BK vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 1.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Mubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Zizou Bergs': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-27Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Polymarket top market 'Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?': YES=94.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=72.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=9.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarket