markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?': YES=45.87%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=34.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=27.72%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=96.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?': YES=19.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Nvidia?': YES=38.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=68.19%

Polymarket top market 'Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: Team to Advance': YES=6.90%

Polymarket top market 'ITF M15 Bali 2 Men: Asahi Harazaki vs Hikaru Shiraishi': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Bonn: Max Houkes vs Roberto Carballes Baena': YES=32.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?': YES=41.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Netanyahu out by end of 2026?': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET': YES=99.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'ODI Series Sri Lanka vs Pakistan, Women: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by July 31?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=3.60%