markets

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=5.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 30?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bonn: Olle Wallin vs Roberto Carballes Baena': YES=36.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?': YES=99.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=1.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?': YES=7.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=86.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Liquid Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?': YES=8.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 29?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=6.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?': YES=1.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?': YES=14.00%