markets

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.02%

Polymarket top market 'Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?': YES=89.10%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: GAM (-1.5) vs CTBC Flying Oyster (+1.5)': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will paiN Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?': YES=3.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?': YES=83.00%

Polymarket top market 'Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Atlético San Luis win on 2026-07-31?': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 1?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5': YES=39.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Lavked vs megoshort (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Playoffs': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'The Memphis Classic: Kristina Liutova vs Caty McNally': YES=42.00%

Polymarket top market 'St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Movistar KOI vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season': YES=65.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=21.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=51.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: BBL Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha': YES=33.00%

Polymarket top market 'Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima': YES=61.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?': YES=9.60%