markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=35.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'UFC Fight Night: Milos Janicic vs. Noah Gugnon (Lightweight, Main Card)': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Mubadala Citi DC Open: Naomi Osaka vs Alexandra Eala': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?': YES=38.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.70%

Polymarket top market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?': YES=3.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'FC Lahti vs. FF Jaro: O/U 4.5': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Max Dahlin': YES=47.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?': YES=77.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=38.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 27-August 2?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?': YES=81.80%

Polymarket top market 'New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)': YES=51.00%