markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%
NVDAmarket:manifold- 2026-08-01Will BK Hacken win on 2026-08-01?
Polymarket top market 'Will BK Hacken win on 2026-08-01?': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-01Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 15?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs': YES=26.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season': YES=66.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=97.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: T1 vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=30.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?': YES=38.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=53.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?': YES=78.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-01Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?': YES=34.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=46.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 1?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 27-August 2?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?': YES=45.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=32.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 1?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=55.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season': YES=48.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Execration vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Execration vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=30.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 1?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 1?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=4.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 1?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-01Liberec: Norbert Gombos vs Gonzalo Bueno
Polymarket top market 'Liberec: Norbert Gombos vs Gonzalo Bueno': YES=23.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket