markets

Manifold consensus on 'Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?': YES=44.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=25.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=54.12%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2031?': YES=45.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2034?': YES=56.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=52.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=50.15%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2035?': YES=64.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2036?': YES=68.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=46.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2039?': YES=70.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2038?': YES=68.21%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2037?': YES=65.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=63.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2036?': YES=69.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2041?': YES=73.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2031?': YES=48.21%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=35.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=52.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2035?': YES=66.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?': YES=7.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=17.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2040?': YES=76.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=52.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=31.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2034?': YES=59.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=43.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026?': YES=8.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?': YES=10.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?': YES=67.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?': YES=10.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVDA own >1% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?': YES=76.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI's primary consumer AI product still be branded 'ChatGPT' on December 31, 2033?': YES=39.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=8.26%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?': YES=14.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI or Google have a stronger model by the end of 2026?': YES=82.91%