markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=54.12%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2037?': YES=67.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk?': YES=21.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2042?': YES=75.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2036?': YES=69.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2040?': YES=75.35%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=53.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=37.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=50.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2035?': YES=65.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2039?': YES=71.56%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2031?': YES=47.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2041?': YES=75.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2038?': YES=70.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2048?': YES=85.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=17.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=30.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2037?': YES=70.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=2.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=38.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?': YES=67.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?': YES=10.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVDA own >1% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?': YES=76.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026?': YES=8.93%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=26.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI or Google have a stronger model by the end of 2026?': YES=85.24%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=7.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a stronger model by the end of 2026?': YES=55.53%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?': YES=31.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple still be partnered with OpenAI in 2028?': YES=27.63%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=3.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=8.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6?': YES=66.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%