markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=27.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?': YES=19.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=95.90%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=62.98%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-08-05?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=90.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 6?': YES=99.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Regular Season': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Kayla Day vs Coco Gauff': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Apóllon Lemesoú win on 2026-08-05?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lucas Jumalon Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?': YES=61.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=29.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=65.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=4.00%