markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
Polymarket top market 'Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=36.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: PCIFIC vs Bushido Wildcats - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 6?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-05Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
Polymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?': YES=22.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Maria Sakkari vs Zeynep Sonmez': YES=71.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?': YES=78.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-05Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-08-05?
Polymarket top market 'Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-08-05?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=86.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=60.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Alex Michelsen vs Francisco Cerundolo': YES=59.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=25.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group': YES=47.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: PCIFIC vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-05Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=4.80%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-05Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 6?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=79.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-05LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group B
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group B': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-05St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees
Polymarket top market 'St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees': YES=42.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Vitality.Bee vs Skillcamp Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-05Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-08-05?
Polymarket top market 'Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-08-05?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Matteo Arnaldi': YES=59.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-05S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?
Polymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-05Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=68.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: ZYB Esport vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Solary (BO1) - LFL Regular Season': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-05Will SK Brann win on 2026-08-05?
Polymarket top market 'Will SK Brann win on 2026-08-05?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Raphael Collignon vs Alexei Popyrin': YES=39.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-05Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Polymarket top market 'Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=2.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Karen Khachanov vs Terence Atmane': YES=57.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Playoffs': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=54.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?': YES=93.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket