markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)': YES=71.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk?': YES=21.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2037?': YES=68.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=35.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=37.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=37.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2037?': YES=70.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2031?': YES=45.34%

Manifold consensus on 'The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts': YES=66.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term?': YES=16.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2048?': YES=85.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=17.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=27.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=38.93%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=2.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?': YES=10.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?': YES=67.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?': YES=10.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026?': YES=8.93%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVDA own >1% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?': YES=76.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?': YES=38.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=7.71%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?': YES=31.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=24.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=8.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=3.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6?': YES=65.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=15.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?': YES=23.80%