markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=48.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Tesla overtake NVIDIA in market cap before 2030?': YES=15.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=62.98%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 6?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 6?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 7?': YES=99.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=84.70%

Polymarket top market '2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=75.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=26.60%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Iga Swiatek': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 6?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=87.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=64.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Warsaw: Justina Mikulskyte vs Gabriela Knutson': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins': YES=43.90%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 6?': YES=91.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=24.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=4.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner': YES=42.00%