markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=91.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=81.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=46.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=88.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
Polymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?': YES=8.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang': YES=94.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs': YES=52.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?': YES=64.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 6?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?': YES=93.00%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarket- 2026-08-06Istanbul 2: Gijs Brouwer vs Yanki Erel
Polymarket top market 'Istanbul 2: Gijs Brouwer vs Yanki Erel': YES=24.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=27.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=69.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Joblife (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins': YES=66.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=6.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?': YES=93.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=65.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 6?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 6?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 6?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Trump out as President by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 6?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=55.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 6?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 1 Winner': YES=20.00%
SOFTBANKmarket:polymarket- 2026-08-06Hagen: Matej Dodig vs Lorenzo Giustino
Polymarket top market 'Hagen: Matej Dodig vs Lorenzo Giustino': YES=81.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?': YES=95.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 6?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=45.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=85.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=53.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarket