markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?': YES=19.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on 'US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?': YES=3.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Tesla overtake NVIDIA in market cap before 2030?': YES=15.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=62.98%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship?': YES=3.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=98.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?': YES=84.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 6?': YES=92.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 5?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group': YES=21.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?': YES=5.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 6?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?': YES=47.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?': YES=2.60%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 1 Winner': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 7?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=84.80%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?': YES=3.10%

Polymarket top market '2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=8.00%