markets

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=95.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?': YES=19.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.44%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.48%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=66.35%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?': YES=4.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 15?': YES=6.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 7?': YES=82.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 7?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'ITF Astana: Arnav Vijay Paparkar vs Martin Borisiouk': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?': YES=87.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 7?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri join Real Madrid?': YES=10.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?': YES=3.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri join Barcelona?': YES=87.80%

Polymarket top market 'NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=79.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?': YES=26.00%