markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-09Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Polymarket top market 'Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Sport Boys Association win on 2026-08-08?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=59.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?': YES=75.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 1.5': YES=3.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 9?': YES=3.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-09Iran leadership change by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by December 31?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-09Bitcoin Up or Down on August 9?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 9?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-09Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-09Will FC Voluntari win on 2026-08-09?
Polymarket top market 'Will FC Voluntari win on 2026-08-09?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=63.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 9?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-09Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 3-9?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 3-9?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?': YES=44.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=24.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=57.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 9?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=35.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs LNG Esports (+1.5)': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: K27 vs SAW (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins': YES=72.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs ASTRAL (+1.5)': YES=60.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-08-08?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=93.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 9?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-09Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 3-9?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 3-9?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 9?': YES=97.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-09Iran leadership change by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by August 31?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-09Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-08-08?
Polymarket top market 'Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-08-08?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-09Trump out as President by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs DENDELE CS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins': YES=33.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=85.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-09Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-09Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-08-08?
Polymarket top market 'Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-08-08?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=4.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket