markets

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=90.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=48.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.44%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=45.53%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=59.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=67.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.81%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?': YES=47.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs B8 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on August 11?': YES=35.90%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks': YES=38.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?': YES=28.00%

Polymarket top market 'Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 11?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=76.00%

Polymarket top market 'NEC vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 2.5': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner': YES=93.00%

Polymarket top market 'Qairat FK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 2.5': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=21.70%

Polymarket top market 'Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals': YES=61.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: magic vs TheMongolz (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=47.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 11?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-08-11?': YES=58.00%